What if there was a way to analyze what prevents students from persisting to high school graduation and to a successful college experience?  And what if educators could put interventions in place to give students timely, targeted support to increase the likelihood that they’ll complete college?

A new collaborative effort between Hartford Public Schools (HPS), and Achieve Hartford’s ALL IN! coalition is designed to do just that with the help of Lincoln Financial Group. Through the initiative, actuaries from Lincoln will analyze student data from two sources: the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) and HPS data spanning from 2009-2016. U.S. colleges and universities submit data to NSC about students who enroll, attend and graduate. (Note: The data provided to Lincoln was carefully reviewed by Hartford Public Schools to remove any information that could lead to identifying a particular student.)

Coalition members already know that some students accepted to college don’t even start and that others who start don’t graduate. The ALL IN! coalition launched a program last summer to prevent ‘summer melt’ – when students who plan to attend a college don’t start in the fall because they can’t afford a fee, miss a deadline or face some other obstacle.

“Every school district in Connecticut sends their graduating class data to the NSC and the clearinghouse issues reports back to the district. The reports detail, in aggregate, how many students are attending each of the potential higher education options – two- or four-year, part-time or full-time, private or public, in-state or out-of-state – and whether they entered college within 24 months of high school graduation,” says Martin Estey, executive director of the Hartford Consortium for Higher Education. “The problem is that nobody has analyzed these reports to spot trends and patterns that might serve as clues to which path is most likely to end in success for Hartford schools’ graduates.”

In 2012, Estey suggested that those working together for students’ success apply some high-level data analytics expertise to the clearinghouse spread sheets, add some data points that aren’t included in the reports, and analyze the numbers to see what they forecast.

“Connecticut has the highest concentration of actuaries in the country – many right here in Hartford,” said Estey.  These are professionals who analyze risks and the likelihood of future events.  Why can’t we apply some of that type of analysis and talent towards understanding student behaviors when they leave high school?” he says. “When approached with this project, Lincoln’s actuaries spoke up right away.  They were willing to donate extremely valuable expertise to this effort.”

The Work Begins

Hartford Public Schools has transferred data to Lincoln Financial and it’s expected to take to school year end for a team of four actuaries to analyze the data and create a predictive model.  Once a predictive model is completed, the Lincoln actuaries will meet with the HPS subject matter experts to help them understand the data for their future use.

“Lincoln Financial is committed to helping children reach their greatest potential by providing support for educational programs that impact academic achievement.” said Marlene Ferreira, regional director- Community and Foundation Relations, Lincoln Financial Foundation.  “We are very excited to be providing skilled volunteers for this initiative to unleash the power of predictive analytics to identify the factors of academic and post-graduation success.

Paul Diego Holzer, executive director of Achieve Hartford! added, “This kind of partnership work is not common – it’s ground breaking. Hartford is one of only a handful of cities looking at data the way we plan to look at in the coming months.”

Kathleen England, former chief academic officer, Hartford Public Schools, commented, “The predictive model will help us point to which aspects are really impacting our students in whether they attain college enrollment.  This data has the potential to help the district better match students with universities, colleges or advanced certification programs that are the best fit for them.  I think it’s a really good example of different stakeholders being able to collaborate and come out with something we feel will be really powerful for our students and families.”

Hartford business leaders, non-profit partners, educators and students were among the 200 attendees at Achieve Hartford’s annual “inspiration”- raiser, Inspire Hartford.  Presented by UnitedHealthcare – and showcasing the work of students from the Academy of Engineering and Green Technology, Pathways Academy of Technology and Design, and Milner School – the Inspire Hartford event offered a unique opportunity to see what 21st century learning is about.

Held at the Hartford Hilton on March 28, the event also brought to Hartford, Founder and CEO of Chicago Beyond, a youth equity platform that exists so that ALL youth, especially those most vulnerable, will have the opportunity to achieve their fullest human potential. Since its launch in 2016, Chicago Beyond has invested more than $30M in disruptive organizations, ideas and people to make that a reality.

During her timely discussion about the culture of inequity that persists in urban education, Liz recounted her experiences as principal at Fenger High School, known as one of the most violent and underperforming schools  in  the  city  of  Chicago, as where she learned some of her greatest life lessons.

And there were many lessons to learn. Dozier’s first year at Fenger High was featured in the docu-series “Chicago-Land,” where CNN followed her work as principal and many others who faced the challenges of gangs, crime and poverty throughout the school and city.

It was during this time Liz had to make one of her most pivotal decisions.  She received a call from a nationally know education expert who told her the odds were against her making much more of a difference at the troubled school. After that conversation, fear of failure set in, fear for the kids.  “I can’t do enough for them, what’s going to happen to them and the community?”

But it was at this moment Liz stated where you must decide – are you all in or out– you can’t be half way.   Are you willing to create innovative disruption in education for kids in the way Uber has for the transportation industry or Airbnb in lodging?

Liz and her team went to work to devise new approaches – it was a period of trial and error, but they were in pursuit of a really big idea – equity for ALL of Fenger’s students.

What happens when you are All In?

Under Dozier’s leadership, Fenger experienced a decrease in its dropout rate from 19% to 2%, a 40% increase in Freshmen On-Track to graduate, and double digit increases in attendance.

Wanting to make a broader impact Liz left Fenger to launch Chicago Beyond where they work to identify the most disruptive and innovative ideas in youth safety and education to invest in learn from and, most importantly to grow. “Building the connective tissue between the public and private sector to provide wrap around support for students will impact the education ecosystem.”

In Dozier’s parting comment (you can watch here) she stressed that the school district doesn’t have to lead all change to provide an equitable education for all children. “How are you pushing yourself?” School districts can’t do this work alone. “How can we give all kids a chance?”

It’s a question we give you room to reflect on, “Are you ALL IN?”

See Dozier’s full speech here.

A Summer Melt Update

Last year, the Summer Melt Action Team (part of the All In! coalition) made their first attempt to increase the rate of Hartford Public Schools (HPS) students enrolling in college in the fall immediately following their graduation. After selecting and intervening with a cohort of 127 students from the class of 2017, that rate increased by three points over the previous year, to a new high of 61%.

And with assistance from researchers at the University of Connecticut, this year’s team is striving for a larger impact and greater rigor.

Following a proposal which has just cleared UConn’s Institutional Review Board—a body that ensures adherence to ethical research standards—the researchers are set to conduct focus groups of last year’s participants and outreach specialists to inform practice improvements for the coming year.

Following the focus groups (and a review of relevant academic literature and last year’s data), the UConn researchers will produce a practice manual to standardize the training of our outreach specialists and the intervention they deliver. One of the impending modifications to that intervention is that it will now be informed by principles of self-efficacy training. The precise nature of this is still to be determined, pending completion of the manual.

In the meantime, staff at the Hartford Consortium for Higher Education will be pursuing a recruitment goal of 200 students. For this, they will be working together with school counselors at HPS high schools. Counselors will use their access to data—and to the students themselves—to identify which students have been accepted to college and wish to attend, but are, in their professional opinion, at risk of not enrolling for the fall. The basics of this process were recently presented to the school counselors during one of their recent professional development sessions on February 20^th, to prepare them for the coming project.